Dog Days of August

We are right in the midst of a seasonally weak period - end of summer, beginning of autumn. From a technical point of view, the S&P is looking for direction. The market is in a secular (long-term) uptrend and a short-term downtrend. Fundamentally, stocks are very highly valued relative to their history. This valuation is based on a number of factors: extremely low interest rates, huge amounts of liquidity from central bankers, global economic expansion, and favorable regulatory environments. This entire bull market dating back to 2009 has been marked by naysayers and reasons to stay on the sideline. In general, this is a very good sign for investors willing to take the risk. When investor sentiment teeters towards overconfidence and euphoria is when it's time to start taking profits. At some point a bear market will come, but as long as we continue to hear about it from every corner of the investment community I doubt it will come now. Nevertheless, we are very vigilant of events that could spur a violent market reaction. Namely, a rapid uptick in inflation or major shake-up in Washington.